Episode 1299: The Whiff Heard Round the World
Date November 22, 2018 Summary Ben Lindbergh and Jeff Sullivan banter about a Willians Astudillo strikeout (and Astudillo vs. other, more highly-touted Twins), the team-switching saga of Oliver Drake, and the singular skill of Nathan Eovaldi, then answer listener emails about changing the game to appeal to non-fans, the value of base-stealing, the odds of seeing gear from every team at one game, Allen Cordoba and the aftermath of the 2017 Padres’ Rule 5 extravaganza, Gareth Morgan and the highest strikeout rates, adjusting stats for the times-through-the-order effect, and modern pitcher usage compared to the gig economy, plus a Stat Blast about Derek Dietrich and the hitters with the highest hit-by-pitch rates. Topics * Why change baseball * Value of a stolen base * Derek Dietrich * Padres rule 5 picks * Gareth Morgan * Adjusting stats for times through the order * Finding fans in all teams gear * Baseball economy Intro * Neko Case & Her Boyfriends, "Thanks a Lot" Outro * Chris Thile, "Thanks for Listening" Banter * Willians Astudillo * Oliver Drake transactions * Nathan Eovaldi Email Questions * Peter: I'm 15 years old, and you actually inspired me to start my own baseball podcast with my dad, called Growing Up Baseball. As a 15 year old, I always laugh when I hear the tagline, "We need to attract more kids to baseball" from Rob Manfred. As far as pace of play goes, I love baseball for it's slow, calm pace that can get intense real fast, and I like basketball for it's fast pace that gets the viewer interested. My question is this: Why would the people in charge of baseball want to change baseball to make it more enjoyable for people for aren't baseball fans right now? That will just make it less enjoyable for hard core baseball fans like us who love it the way it is. * Mike: I am a relatively new baseball fan, and I have a question about base stealing. I have heard that stealing is only worthwhile if it is successful 75% of the time or more. I am confused about how that works. I think of base stealing as binary. If it works, it was worth it; and if it doesn’t work, it wasn’t worth it. So how does that statistic work? Does that statistic take into account the fact that a successful steel puts a runner in scoring position, and makes it more likely they will score a run? Can the statistic take into account how a successful steal might change the pitching? I suppose I was disappointed to learn that base stealing is no longer emphasized in baseball. I consider it a fun, athletic, and graceful play to watch. * Matt: You may remember Allen Cordoba, a Padres Rule-5 pick from last year. Well, they sent him to High-A and it's going very poorly.In 100 plate appearances, he's slashing .198/.212/.292 with a 27 WRC+. He was pretty bad in the big leagues last year, but still managed a 57 WRC+ in 227 plate appearances. So my question is: has anyone ever hit worse in High-A than the big leagues (min. 100 plate appearances)? Also, obviously Cordoba's circumstances are unique, but has anyone hit that poorly in High-A and even gotten 200+ MLB plate appearances? Still a relatively small sample size for Cordoba, so hopefully he can turn it around, but yikes! * Ben: From the pitching side: Is there a known factor for how much a pitcher is less likely to be effective if the batter has seen them before in the game? And then again for if the batter has seen them twice and so on? And then would it be of some value to adjust pitching stats by those values? For example, would it be appropriate to penalize a pitcher less for giving up home run to Aaron Judge (go Yankees) the third time he's faced him as opposed to the first time in a game? I think that this type of metric would be a way to treat starting pitchers who face the same batters multiple times in a game from relievers who are called on to face batters just once. You may even be able to see more directly how a starting pitcher's third time through the lineup compares to how a reliever's first pitches might be. From the batting side: Same ideas, though I'm a bit more unaware of what the expected results are. But if a batter typically does better the more times he's seen a pitcher in the game. Or maybe there are some batters that are really good at facing pitchers right out the gate (maybe Acuna with his ridiculous homer streak last year?). I don't know what it would look like, but it would seem to make sense to me that plate appearances the first, second, or third time facing a pitcher should be treated differently from each other. This could maybe give a manager ideas about who would be the best pinch hitters on a team, or maybe could be used by opposing managers to see if it's okay to leave a pitcher in or if they should move to a reliever. * Sam: What are the odds of having at least one fan wearing gear from all 30 MLB teams at a given game (30 fans each wearing a different teams gear, not one team wearing something from all 30 teams)? Is this more likely at a high-stakes/playoff game, or a mid-August game between two teams out of competition? How much higher is the probability given that Marlins Man is at the game? * Stewart: A thought struck me a little while ago. Couldn't it be said that the current use of pitchers reflects the modern gig-based work culture in general? It used to be that pitchers (say, Baby Boomer starters) would get seven innings and a gold watch on their way out of the game, with any remaining work handled by journeymen. If you got into a spot of bother early on, your employer would often show patience, letting you try to work through it. Heck, it was even seen as good experience. Now Millennials trying to start a career are increasingly treated as interchangeable as they're forced into low-paying, short-term, high-stress gigs. Couldn't it be said that Ryan Yarbrough, toiling for the minimum salary and tasked with shouldering a starter's workload while at the same time seeing his WAR contributions devalued because he's "technically" a reliever, represents something bigger than just a new baseball strategy? Does not Steve Cishek, for example, who's bounced around five different teams over the last four years while putting up a 156 ERA+, hold up a mirror to our gig-based economy where even something nearing elite performance is seen as a fungible asset instead of an employee worth investing in long-term? Anyways, I'll close now, as this is already longer than I meant it to be, but I feel like this stretches all the way back to the start of baseball (I mean, is it a coincidence Andrew Carnegie was tightening his monopoly on American steel at the same time in 1884 that Old Hoss Radbourn was throwing 678.2 innings?). For those who are tired of interchangeable relievers and modern pitcher usage, spare a thought for those poor temps just trying to turn a job into a career. Statblast * Brandon Guyer has been hit by a pitch 5.7 percent of the times he has come to the plate, with a minimum of 1500 plate appearances. * Derek Dietrich has been hit by pitched 4.4 percent of his plate appearances with a minimum of 2000 plate appearances. * Whitey Alpermann was hit by pitches more times than he walked, he played 1906 to 1909. Notes * Willians Astudillo finally struck out in winter league. * Gareth Morgan stuck out 55 percent of the time. * The highest single season strikeout rate in the major leagues is Javier Baez with 42 percent in 2014. Links https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/effectively-wild-episode-1299-the-whiff-heard-round-the-world/ Link to Jeff’s Eovaldi post Link to Jeff’s Dietrich post Link to Ben’s Padres Rule 5 post Link to Shakeia Taylor on White Sox caps Link to EW Secret Santa sign-up Category:Episodes Category:Email Episodes